What can we learn about
the H1N1 or swine flu
from the published information?

Updated July 24, 2009
The CDC reports cases and deaths in the USA weekly

Apparently the World Health Organization is asking countries to stop reporting new cases of H1N1 as of July 6th, 2009
Their new motto for pandemic disease is: Ignorance is Bliss!

2009 H1N1 flu virus
    Recent reports of a new "swine flu" virus among humans are emerging. Influenza viruses from
different species can mix and reassort (i.e. swap DNA) and new viruses that are a mix of swine,
human and/or avian influenza viruses can emerge. While called "swine flu", this 2009 H1N1 flu virus
appears to be a hybrid of North American swine influenza viruses, North American avian
influenza viruses, human influenza viruses, and swine influenza viruses found in both Asia and Europe.
According to the CDC there is no connection to this new virus and contact with swine - it appears to
be solely a result of human-to-human transmission.

11 June 2009
Influenza pandemic alert raised to phase 6 -- On the basis of available evidence and expert assessments of the evidence, the scientific criteria for an influenza pandemic have been met. The Director-General of WHO has therefore decided to raise the level of influenza pandemic alert from phase 5 to phase 6. The world is now at the start of the 2009 influenza pandemic!


Click on graph to toggle between a log plot showing powers of 10 on the left axis for the case
numbers or a linear plot showing individual case numbers on the left hand axis.

This data comes directly from the CDC website. You can view the CDC data by Clicking HERE.
Apparently, the CDC is now collecting this data only every Friday. If you don't like the situation of
fewer and fewer updates by your government while the number of cases are growing exponentially,
please contact CDC with your opinion!

What about deaths and the death rate caused by H1N1 in the USA?


The death rate is calculated using the number of deaths divided by the number of reported cases at one time.

    Below is a graph of swine flu or H1N1 flu by US State (for selected states).


Click on graph to toggle between a log plot showing powers of 10 on the left axis for the case
numbers or a linear plot showing individual case numbers on the left hand axis.


Select a US State to view their growth rate (unfortunately many states have stopped reporting new cases)
H1N1 flu cases world wide were growing rapidly when they decided to no longer publish this data.
Click on graph to toggle between a log plot showing powers of 10 on the left axis for the case
numbers or a linear plot showing individual case numbers on the left hand axis.

A two part growth model has been added to the graph in order to characterize the growth of the WHO
numbers. For a description of this growth model Click Here.

This data comes from the World Health Organization (WHO) and the CDC. You can view the data used for these graphs by Clicking HERE.
WHO is collecting data Monday, Wednesday, and Friday and the data from the CDC for the USA is updated only weekly now.

Now lets look at H1N1 flu cases world wide by country published by the World Health Organization.

Click on graph to toggle between a log plot showing powers of 10 on the left axis for the case
numbers or a linear plot showing individual case numbers on the left hand axis.


Select a country to view their growth rate
Now what about deaths worldwide?

Plot of number of deaths in the World together with a constant growth (exponential) model

The case fatality rate (CFR) is calculated using the number of deaths divided by the number of reported cases at one time.
The CFR seems to be stabilizing at about 0.44%.
Below is the last published world map on the World Health Organization (WHO) website

Posted Comments must be approved by the owner of the site... they must have scientific content!

July 2nd When will UK cases of H1N1 exceed 10000? comment by TMN
June 5 Swine Flu Case Fatality Rate comment by TMN
May 14 Photos of the swine flu virus
May 13 Swine Flu May Be Human Error by Jason Gale and Simeon Bennett of Bloomberg
May 11 Antiviral Recommendations for Patients by CDC
May 9 Information given to family physicians by AAFP
May 8 Calculating Influenza Deaths by F. Edward Yazbak, MD, FAAP with comment by TMN
May 8 Symptoms of Swine Flue by Joseph Bresee
May 8 Will swine flu follow pattern of deadly 1918 pandemic? by Susanne Rust
May 7 Other swine-human-bird flu viruses (triple reassortant):

Please email your comments to: info@science4dummies.com

PS. The number of visitors to this site. Visit and make the graph go up up up...!

!